TOPEKA, Kan.- Kansas business conditions showed an increase to 57.1 in June, up from 51.0 in May, according to the monthly Business Conditions Index compiled by Creighton University.
The index is the average of individual scores measuring new orders, production or sales, delivery lead time, employment, and inventories.
“The overall index, much like the U.S. reading, has vacillated around growth neutral since December of 2023. Additionally, supply managers remained pessimistic regarding the 2024 outlook with approximately 48% expecting a downturn in economic activity for the remainder of 2024,” Ernie Goss, director of Creighton University’s Economic Forecasting Group said. 
Kansas employment has stayed below growth neutral for the past six months, with the June employment index showing a slight increase of 44.0 compared to 43.7 in May.
“Covid changed many businesses and some had to close and have never returned. I’ve noticed others that stayed open and struggled ever since. So Covid has had a long-lasting effect,” said one supply manager in June.
In June, regional wholesale prices significantly dropped to 61.4 from 70.8 in May.
“The regional inflation yardstick has moved into a range indicating inflationary pressures moving toward the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) target for the second half of 2024. As a result, I expect the Fed to cut interest rates at its September meetings,” Goss said.
Kansas Individual Highlights
Components from the monthly survey have new orders at 48.5, production or sales at 56.6, delivery lead time at 55.9, employment at 51.6, and inventories at 68.5.
Data from the U.S. International Trade Administration shows Kansas’ manufacturing sector has experienced an 6.7% increase over the past year, and has expanded to $4.1 billion from $3.8 billion during the same time last year. Kansas is one of six states in the survey that has seen a gain in the manufacturing sector, while three states saw a loss.
Regional Trade
The regional June Business Conditions Index shows exports continued to sink below growth neutral for the month at 45.3 in June compared to 46.7 in May.
“According to the latest U.S. International Trade Administration data, the region’s manufacturing sector expanded year-to-date 2024 exports to $29.0 billion from $27.8 billion for the same period in 2023 for a 4.1% gain,” Goss said.
Other surveys in the trade sector show an increase in new orders from 49.0 in June from 47.9 in May. Sales index also showed an increase of 54.3 in June from 43.7 in May. This increase shows a slight expansion in delivery bottlenecks and supply chain disruptions for the month.
The Mid-America Region monthly surveys conducted by the Creighton Economic Forecasting group include Kansas, Arkansas, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota, and Missouri.
