TOPEKA, Kan.- Kansas business conditions decreased to 48.0 in July, from 57.1 in June, according to the monthly Business Conditions Index compiled by Creighton University.
The index is the average of individual scores measuring new orders, production or sales, delivery lead time, employment, and inventories.
“The overall index, much like the U.S. reading, has vacillated around growth neutral since December of 2023. Additionally, supply managers remained pessimistic regarding the 2024 outlook with only 11% expecting growth for the rest of 2024,” Ernie Goss, director of Creighton University’s Economic Forecasting Group said.
Employment has fallen below 50.0 for the past seven months, with the July employment index showing a slight increase of 49.7 in July compared to 44.0 in June. 
“The economy is finally feeling the impact of higher interest rates. Once the Fed starts cutting rates, expect short-term price increases which will have a negative effect on inflation.” said one supply manager in July.
The wholesale prices slightly dropped for the fifth straight month from 59.9 in July from 61.4 in June.
“This is the fifth straight month that the inflation gauge has fallen. The regional inflation yardstick has clearly declined into a range indicating inflationary pressures moving toward the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) target for the second half of 2024. As a result, I expect the Fed to cut interest rates two times in the remaining months of 2024,” Goss said.
Kansas Individual Highlights
Components from the monthly survey have new orders at 50.0, production or sales at 48.3, delivery lead time at 53.3, employment at 39.1, and inventories at 48.3.
Data from the U.S. International Trade Administration shows Kansas’ manufacturing sector has experienced a 7.0% increase over the past year, and has expanded to $5.2 billion from $4.8 billion during the same time last year. Kansas is one of six states in the survey that has seen a gain in the manufacturing sector which includes Arkansas, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, and Oklahoma. The remaining three states saw a reduction in the manufacturing sector including South Dakota, North Dakota, and Iowa.
Regional Trade
The regional July Business Conditions Index shows exports rose above growth neutral for the month at 51.5 in July compared to 51.5 in June.
“According to the latest U.S. International Trade Administration data, the region’s manufacturing sector expanded 2024 year-to-date exports to $43.9 billion from $39.7 billion for the same period in 2023 for a 10.3% gain,” Goss said.
Other surveys in the trade sector show an increase above the neutral in new orders to 51.1 in July from 49.0 in June. Sales index fell below the growth neutral to 49.3 in July from 54.3 in May. This increase shows a slight expansion in delivery bottlenecks and supply chain disruptions for the month.
The Mid-America Region monthly surveys conducted by the Creighton Economic Forecasting group include Kansas, Arkansas, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota, and Missouri.
