The Center for Economic Development and Business Research (CEDBR) recently published a report projecting Kansas’ population growth from 2021 to 2071.
Though areas such as Topeka, for example, were projected to decline in population, local community leaders have expressed optimism in proving otherwise over time.
The research forecasted population growth for different regions in Kansas by race, ethnic group, age, and gender. The projections utilized comprehensive data on statewide and regional population, birth, mortality, and migration rates for various demographic groups.
“We allowed for migration to and from other counties and looked at fertility rates by those demographics,” said CEDBR Research Economist Jonathan Norris. “We also looked at mortality rates. We have the transitory population in each county, like people who leave to attend universities and a certain share of them returning to their counties of origin.”
The forecast predicted growth in Kansas’ total population to more than 468,000 residents — an increase of 16% compared to the 2021 population. According to the report, this growth rate will continue annually until 2071, representing a modest decline from the high growth rates experienced between 1960 and 2010 (0.54%).
Some areas — including Atchison, Coffeyville, Great Bend, Liberal, McPherson, Ottawa, Parsons, St. Joseph, Topeka, Winfield, and the aggregated population of non-metro/micropolitan areas — are projected to experience declines in population through 2071.
Though the CEDBR’s report presents a speculative projection, community leaders in Kansas have looked to other factors and expressed optimism for future growth. According to Greater Topeka Partnership Senior Vice President of Marketing, Communication & Events Bob Ross, Topeka will see an inflow of talent with its Choose Topeka campaign which has already attracted 118 families to Topeka. The Topeka chamber also reported the community has begun adapting to forecasted demographic shifts by offering bilingual and Spanish language support.
“This transformation of Topeka will change expectations, and we look forward to disrupting the Center for Economic Development and Business Research’s long-term forecast.” Ross said. “Additionally, our refugee program has welcomed more than 100 new residents from Ukraine, all eager to contribute to our workforce.”
According to CEDBR Director Jeremy Hill, the Kansas Population Metro Report should be considered a helpful tool. However, projections are not set in stone. The report was designed to also consider unique variables between Kansas areas shared by community leaders.
“We built this model with the flexibility to create alternative area-specific forecasts to include issues of data or analysis of policies.” Hill explained. “For example, Dodge City and Garden City explained how census estimates are probably wrong, so we were able to create alternative forecasts to capture what they’re saying was missed. If there’s a new policy, we can put it in the model and then state how that might impact population over time.”
While Kansas prepares for changes in area population distribution over the next five decades, understanding these trends will help policymakers and businesses plan and prepare for upcoming challenges and opportunities.
Click here to read the CEDBR’s full Kansas Population Metro Report.
